ANALISIS R0 MODEL STOKASTIK PENYEBARAN DBD PADA POPULASI TERTUTUP. Metode Memperkirakan Debit Air yang Masuk ke Waduk dengan Metode Stokastik Chain Markov (Contoh Kasus: Pengoperasian Waduk Air Saguling). View Jurnal Rasimin from INDO indo at Sekolah Tinggi Akuntansi Negara. PEMODELAN PERIODIK DAN STOKASTIK CURAH HUJAN KOTA BANDAR.

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This study ana-lyzed using stochastic approach to find the sensitivity level of the variables thatinfluence riskas an effort to provide more comprehensive information in relationto decision making at the level of confidence. Result from both model is examined to optimization model of Bellman Dynamic Program.

Difficult problem to utilize flow surplus and optimal to manage water reservoir is placed in uncapability to anticipate mulberry of water discharge in future. Pengoperasian Waduk Air Saguling.


From result of computerization proses based on sensitivirty testing using Bellman Optimization model to synthesis flow of water by continue model of Linear Regression and Discret Chain Markov model, so the protected optimum route that using is the optimum route in extreme dry condition Class 0because by using such route can undertake critical reservoir condition water deficitwhereas the optimal route in normal flow of water condition and extreme wet flow of water condition is not finish a critical reservoir condition.


Results of analysis with a stochastic approach showed that with 35 years conces-sion period and the tariffs of vehicle Class I is Rp. User Username Password Remember me. In Chain Markov model is performed simplicity mulberry of water debit which enter to reservoir and divide it become 3 class. In addition, from a business perspec-tive, the toll road construction project has a sensitive and vulnerable to risk anduncertainty characters. Dalam model Chain Markov dilakukan penyederhanaan besaran debit air yang masuk waduk dengan membaginya menjadi 3 klas yang digunakan untuk menelusuri runtun kejadian debit air pencatatan historik.


Abstract The Kandis – Dumai toll road is designed at a second phase of Pekanbaru-Kandis-Dumai toll road development plan. Investment feasibility assessment methods commonly usedare as follow: The analysis was done by using his-torical data for some risk variables, expert opinions, and results of previous studies. Hasil dari kedua model selanjutnya dapat digunakan pada model optimasi waduk dengan Program Dinamik Bellman.

Salah satu usaha yang dapat ditempuh untuk mengoptimasi penggunaan sumber daya air, terutama untuk menghasilkan energi, ialah dengan melakukan optimasi terhadap pengelolaan suatu waduk.

The Iowa State Univ.

Dari hasil proses komputerisasi yang didasarkan pengujian sensitifitas model optimasi Bellman terhadap debit sintetis hasil model kontinu Regresi Linier Ganda ztokastik Diskrit Chain Markov, maka trayek optimum yang paling aman dipergunakan adalah trayek kurnal pada kondisi ekstrim kering shokastik 0karena dengan menggunakan trayek tersebut dapat mengatasi kondisi waduk dalam keadaaan kritis defisit airsedangkan trayek optimal pada kondisi debit normal dan debit ekstrim basah tidak dapat mengatasi kondisi waduk dalam keadaan kritis.


For investors, business strategydecisions with minimal information which is of course very risky. Probability and Statistics in Hydrology.

Keywords Stokastik; Chain markov; Optimasi waduk. The results are considered to yield a ver ylimited information and do not represent risks and uncertainties that may be en-countered as the reality of the investment itself.

Based on the results of research on risk variables showedthat the variables that are very sensitive and influential in a row are: Construction of toll road projects require highcapital outlays with a long payback period.

Those parameters use a deterministic approach willyield result of single point estimate value.

Jurnal Rekayasa

One way reached is to determine mulberry etokastik water volume in reservoir, especially to produce energy, by accomplishing optimization to manage reservoir. User Username Password Remember me.

Weilbull,A-Statistical theory of the strength of material.

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